🖨 print / pocket card — the locked numbers, windows, and presentations in one page.

MONDAY OCT 5 — 3:00 PM SESSION

Lafayette Reservoir, Lafayette, Contra Costa County, CA | Waning crescent (24%) | Moon in Leo

One-paragraph version

Launch at 3:00 PM into a Saturn hour; the window that matters is 3:50 PM–4:15 PM (afternoon sun), parked on the hollow-body frog. Overall 6.6/10 — solid conditions with one clear prime window; be there for it.

The locked numbers

Weather layer

• clear sky — fish tight to shade/structure
• 6 mph chop breaks up overhead predators (plus)
• barometer slowly falling (-2.0 hPa/6h)

Almanac layer (the old-timers' calendar)

• Moon in Leo — proud and picky — match the hatch precisely (almanac tradition, honored as lore)
• Near-quarter moon (transition) — the almanac rates this a strong-feeding stretch
• moon is applying
• Planetary hour at launch: Saturn — the grind — methodical, thorough, slow-work every piece of structure (published in almanacs for centuries)

The session, hour-by-hour

Best presentations for these conditions

• Hollow-body frog — vegetation only — worth it on this lake's grass mats
• Chatterbait (bladed jig) — the wind-lane weapon
• Drop shot — the finesse answer when they slap at reaction baits
  • build: Owner Mosquito Circle 1/0 · Drop shot weight 1/8 oz · 6in Deception worm / Roboworm MMIII 6 in · fluorocarbon (owner field observation (sean, 2026-09-18); line from kb/line.json)
• Wacky-rigged Senko — skipping docks = uneaten pie
  • build: Owner Jungle Wacky (weedless wacky hook) 1/0 · VMC Crossover Ring 6mm · VMC Crossover Pliers · 5in Senko 5 in · fluorocarbon (owner kit (sean, 2026-09-18); hook ref: Owner Jungle Wacky)
• Squarebill crankbait — bank-beater for wind-stacked points

Trend watch — what's winning (market signal, not science)

Dated tournament/creator signals for rigs that already fit these conditions — shown after ranking and never scored into it. - Mid-depth crankbait — fits these conditions (scores 7.8) · YouTube — Brian Latimer (2026-09-19) - “RED CRANKBAITS - THE REAL REASON IT WORKS” - Drop shot — fits these conditions (scores 7.0) · MLF — Gill does it again, wins Tackle Warehouse Pro Circuit Championship on (Sun, 20 Sep 2026) - “Gill's primary bait on the first two days was the venerable 7-inch Big Bite Baits Nekorama in matte margarita on a drop-shot.” - Swimbait — fits these conditions (scores 7.0) · YouTube — Brian Latimer (2 weeks ago) - “how to catch bass on big swimbaits... (Details matter)” - Urchin/dice rig (treble + screw weights) — fits these conditions (scores 7.0) · MLF — Gill does it again, wins Tackle Warehouse Pro Circuit Championship on (Sun, 20 Sep 2026) - “I went out with 38 rods on my deck, because I didn't have a blockbuster deal on that area, and I'll be danged, every fish in that area wanted to bite the urchin. It was lights-out ”

Line & knots for these rigs

• Copolymer — a nylon-based blend — between mono and fluoro Knots quoted from the cited guides — facts, not folklore.
• San Diego jam knot (line-to-terminal) — The San Diego jam knot is a common fishing knot used to tie a line to the hook, swivel, clip, or artificial fly. This knot is also known as the San Diego knot, reverse clinch knot or Heiliger knot. (Wikipedia — San Diego Jam knot)
• Palomar knot (line-to-terminal) — The Palomar knot is a knot that is used for securing a fishing line to a fishing lure, hook, or swivel. It is strong and easy to tie and with practice can even be tied in the dark. (Wikipedia — Palomar knot)
• Uni knot (line-to-terminal, line-to-line, reel-spool) — The uni knot is a multi-purpose fishing knot used in angling that can be used for attaching the fishing line to the spool of a reel, for joining main line to leader/backing lines, and for attaching lures, swivels and snaps. (Wikipedia — Uni knot) Practice: always wet knots before tightening, regardless of line material; fluoro under 10 lb: 10 wraps when tying the snell or uni.

Decision rules

• Drop-shot fish slapping → re-cast the same fish one size up — change profile, not color.
• Wind from W at 6 mph → the SE shore is wind-stacked (fetch ~490 m); fish it first — the W shore is the lee.
• Wind dies → skip the wind-lane baits, go straight to the low-light topwater.
• Slow start ≠ bad session → barren-sign evenings backload — the payoff window is late. (shoreline wind model — © OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL)

fishwitch mvp — weather via Open-Meteo · sky via Swiss Ephemeris · solunar + almanac tradition (fruitful/barren signs are old lore, honored but labeled).