the deep read · step 2

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overall 7.6/10 · San Pablo Reservoir · Sun Oct 4, 3:00 PM

🖨 print / pocket card — the locked numbers, windows, and presentations in one page.

Session timeline — light, pressure, events10101010prime 15:00 · Squarebill crankbait + Mid-depth crankbait3 PM4 PM5 PMsun altitude · barometer

SUNDAY OCT 4 — 3:00 PM SESSION

San Pablo Reservoir, Contra Costa County, CA | Last quarter (35%) | Moon in Cancer

One-paragraph version

Launch at 3:00 PM into a Venus hour; the window that matters is 3:00 PM–3:40 PM (high sun), parked on the squarebill crankbait. Overall 7.6/10 — a genuinely good hand; cash it.

The locked numbers

Launch 3:00 PM / sunset 6:47 PM / dark ~7:13 PM
Moon Last quarter, 35% lit, sets 3:40 PM, rises 12:25 AM
Air 90°F at launch / window 85–90°F
Water ~72°F (air-temp lag — small-lake estimate, no gauge within 30 km; warming +5.1°F/wk)
Species presence on our lake list · not yet confirmed by a logged catch
Sky/wind 100% cloud, 4 mph wind, slowly falling barometer (1010 hPa)
Forecast low agreement — GFS/ECMWF/ICON ±12.4°F, ±2.6 mph, cloud uncertain (±60%)
Color In low light or stained water, choose baits that contrast with the background (dark/black, chartreuse, black-and-blue) rather than natural shades.
Solunar → Moonset (minor) ~3:40 PM; Moon overhead (major) ~8:04 AM; Moon underfoot (major) ~8:36 PM
Scores weather 9/10 · solunar 8/10 · astro 4/10 → overall 7.6/10
Data sky + weather · GFS/ECMWF/ICON ±12.4°F, ±2.6 mph, cloud uncertain (±60%) (low agreement) · no lake-state inference · water temp estimated (no gauge nearby) · no stocking intel · logbook (none) · depth map: lake notes only

Weather layer

  • overcast = fish roam shallow & chase (big plus)
  • 5 mph chop breaks up overhead predators (plus)
  • barometer slowly falling (-1.7 hPa/6h)

Almanac layer (the old-timers' calendar)

  • Moon in Cancer — moon at home — feeding near cover, tides of appetite run strong (almanac tradition, honored as lore)
  • Near-quarter moon (transition) — the almanac rates this a strong-feeding stretch
  • void-of-course until Moon enters the next sign at 15:54 — quiet hours, almanacs say fish pick at baits
  • Planetary hour at launch: Venus — pleasure & luck through finesse — savor it, fish pretty (published in almanacs for centuries)

The session, hour-by-hour

Time Window Sky Do this
3:00 PM–3:40 PM Venus · minor ON · moonset high sun Squarebill crankbait — collide with wood/rock; deflect = strike (craw/chart)
Mid-depth crankbait — grind points & grass edges at the depth break
3:40 PM–3:52 PM Venus · minor ON · moonset · Mercury hour + moon leaves void-of-course high sun Squarebill crankbait — collide with wood/rock; deflect = strike (craw/chart)
Mid-depth crankbait — grind points & grass edges at the depth break
3:52 PM–4:25 PM Mercury · minor ON · Mercury hour + moon leaves void-of-course · Moonset (minor) ends afternoon sun Hollow-body frog — walk it over matted grass, hold on 2 seconds on the strike (white/chart)
Chatterbait (bladed jig) — skim grass tops & wind lanes; snap-rip free of vegetation — half the bites come on the snap (white/chart)
4:25 PM–4:50 PM Mercury · Moonset (minor) ends · Moon hour afternoon sun Drop shot — hover it — shake, never touch bottom; 12–24in leader
Wacky-rigged Senko — skip it under docks, dead-stick the fall
4:50 PM–5:00 PM Moon afternoon sun Drop shot — hover it — shake, never touch bottom; 12–24in leader
Wacky-rigged Senko — skip it under docks, dead-stick the fall

Best presentations for these conditions

  • Squarebill crankbait — bank-beater for wind-stacked points
    • fly rod? → Bass baitfish streamer — baitfish profile on the move (editorial mapping; /kb/fly-bass)
  • Mid-depth crankbait — fills the mid-day gap
    • fly rod? → Bass baitfish streamer — baitfish profile on the move (editorial mapping; /kb/fly-bass)
  • Drop shot — the finesse answer when they slap at reaction baits
    • build: Owner Mosquito Circle 1/0 · Drop shot weight 1/8 oz · 6in Deception worm / Roboworm MMIII 6 in · fluorocarbon (owner field observation (sean, 2026-09-18); line from kb/line.json)
    • fly rod? → Damsel/dragon nymph fly — both suspend a small profile above the bottom and fish almost motionless — indicator or drop-shot fly rig (editorial mapping; /kb/fly-nymph)
  • Wacky-rigged Senko — skipping docks = uneaten pie
    • build: Owner Jungle Wacky (weedless wacky hook) 1/0 · VMC Crossover Ring 6mm · VMC Crossover Pliers · 5in Senko 5 in · fluorocarbon (owner kit (sean, 2026-09-18); hook ref: Owner Jungle Wacky)
    • fly rod? → Damsel/dragon nymph fly — the Senko's dying fall = a slow-falling nymph twitched on the pause (editorial mapping; /kb/fly-nymph)
  • Hollow-body frog — vegetation only — worth it on this lake's grass mats
    • fly rod? → Bass popper — hollow-body frog = a frog/popper fly (editorial mapping; /kb/fly-bass)

Trend watch — what's winning (market signal, not science)

Dated tournament/creator signals for rigs that already fit these conditions — shown after ranking and never scored into it. - Mid-depth crankbait — fits these conditions (scores 7.5) · YouTube — Brian Latimer (2026-09-19) - “RED CRANKBAITS - THE REAL REASON IT WORKS” - Drop shot — fits these conditions (scores 7.2) · MLF — Gill does it again, wins Tackle Warehouse Pro Circuit Championship on (Sun, 20 Sep 2026) - “Gill's primary bait on the first two days was the venerable 7-inch Big Bite Baits Nekorama in matte margarita on a drop-shot.” - Urchin/dice rig (treble + screw weights) — fits these conditions (scores 7.2) · MLF — Gill does it again, wins Tackle Warehouse Pro Circuit Championship on (Sun, 20 Sep 2026) - “I went out with 38 rods on my deck, because I didn't have a blockbuster deal on that area, and I'll be danged, every fish in that area wanted to bite the urchin. It was lights-out ” - Carolina rig — fits these conditions (scores 7.0) · YouTube — Tom Redington (2026-09-18) - “Carolina Rig Masterclass From the Guy Who Perfected It”

Line & knots for these rigs

  • Copolymer — a nylon-based blend — between mono and fluoro Knots quoted from the cited guides — facts, not folklore.
  • Uni knot (line-to-terminal, line-to-line, reel-spool) — The uni knot is a multi-purpose fishing knot used in angling that can be used for attaching the fishing line to the spool of a reel, for joining main line to leader/backing lines, and for attaching lures, swivels and snaps. (Wikipedia — Uni knot)
  • Palomar knot (line-to-terminal) — The Palomar knot is a knot that is used for securing a fishing line to a fishing lure, hook, or swivel. It is strong and easy to tie and with practice can even be tied in the dark. (Wikipedia — Palomar knot)
  • Snell knot (line-to-hook-shank) — The snell knot is a hitch knot used in angling to attach a fishing line to the shank (instead of the eye) of a fishing hook. (Wikipedia — Snell knot) Practice: always wet knots before tightening, regardless of line material; fluoro under 10 lb: 10 wraps when tying the snell or uni.

Decision rules

  • Drop-shot fish slapping → re-cast the same fish one size up — change profile, not color.
  • Overcast holds → extend the reaction phase; this cloud is a gift.

fishwitch mvp — weather via Open-Meteo · sky via Swiss Ephemeris · solunar + almanac tradition (fruitful/barren signs are old lore, honored but labeled).

Tackle for this session — sources & offers

These links never affect the ranking — they're added after the picks are set.

  • cited Squarebill crankbait · Crush Squarebill
    6th Sense catalog (6thsensefishing.com, Shopify products.json) · source
  • cited Mid-depth crankbait · Curve 55
    6th Sense catalog (6thsensefishing.com, Shopify products.json) · source
  • cited Drop shot · Finesse WormZ™
    build it: Drop shot hook (point-up) Amazon · Drop shot weight (only if not snelled) Amazon · Finesse worm Amazon
    build: Owner Mosquito Circle 1/0 · Drop shot weight 1/8 oz · 6in Deception worm / Roboworm MMIII 6 in · fluorocarbon
    Z-Man catalog (www.zmanfishing.com, Shopify products.json) · source
  • cited Wacky-rigged Senko · ZinkerZ™
    build it: Wacky / octopus hook Amazon · O-ring (optional) Amazon · Soft-plastic stick bait Amazon
    build: Owner Jungle Wacky (weedless wacky hook) 1/0 · VMC Crossover Ring 6mm · VMC Crossover Pliers · 5in Senko 5 in · fluorocarbon
    Z-Man catalog (www.zmanfishing.com, Shopify products.json) · source
  • cited Hollow-body frog · Pop FrogZ™
    Z-Man catalog (www.zmanfishing.com, Shopify products.json) · source

📈 Trend watch — what's winning

Dated tournament/creator signals for rigs that already fit these conditions — shown after ranking and never scored into it.

🛒 Shopping list — everything the top rigs need

One row per part, consolidated across the recommended rigs. Links attach after ranking, and ranking never sees them.

  • Owner Mosquito Circle 1/0 for Drop shot
    owner build (fine-wire circle for light line)
    · Amazon (affiliate link — baromoon may earn a commission)
    also: Drop shot hook (point-up) Amazon · Owner Cover Shot Amazon
  • Drop shot weight 1/8 oz for Drop shot · Amazon (affiliate link — baromoon may earn a commission)
  • 6in Deception worm / Roboworm MMIII 6 in for Drop shot
  • fluorocarbon for Drop shot
    kb/line.json finesse pick
  • Owner Jungle Wacky (weedless wacky hook) 1/0 for Wacky-rigged Senko
    weedless; titanium weedguard
    · Amazon (affiliate link — baromoon may earn a commission)
    also: Wacky / octopus hook Amazon
  • VMC Crossover Ring 6mm for Wacky-rigged Senko
    owner build; 6mm dual-channel; NKR Neko Ring is the plain alternative
    · Amazon (affiliate link — baromoon may earn a commission)
    also: VMC NKR Neko Ring VMC / Rapala
  • VMC Crossover Pliers for Wacky-rigged Senko
    owner build
    · VMC / Rapala (manufacturer product page (no commission))
  • 5in Senko 5 in for Wacky-rigged Senko
    green pumpkin
  • fluorocarbon for Wacky-rigged Senko
    kb/line.json finesse pick

Keep going

The plan is set — now widen it, take it with you, or close the loop after.

Look ahead: 7-day outlook → Log this session Add windows to calendar (.ics)