the deep read · step 2

Session report

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overall 6.9/10 · San Pablo Reservoir · Sun Oct 4, 12:00 PM

🖨 print / pocket card — the locked numbers, windows, and presentations in one page.

Session timeline — light, pressure, events10111011prime 12:00 · Mid-depth crankbait + Jerkbait12 PM1 PM2 PMsun altitude · barometer

SUNDAY OCT 4 — 12:00 PM SESSION

San Pablo Reservoir, Contra Costa County, CA | Last quarter (36%) | Moon in Cancer

One-paragraph version

Launch at 12:00 PM into a Jupiter hour; the window that matters is 12:00 PM–12:57 PM (high sun), parked on the mid-depth crankbait. Overall 6.9/10 — solid conditions with one clear prime window; be there for it.

The locked numbers

Launch 12:00 PM / sunset 6:47 PM / dark ~7:13 PM
Moon Last quarter, 36% lit, sets 3:40 PM, rises 12:25 AM
Air 86°F at launch / window 86–90°F
Water ~72°F (air-temp lag — small-lake estimate, no gauge within 30 km; warming +5.1°F/wk)
Species presence on our lake list · not yet confirmed by a logged catch
Sky/wind 100% cloud, 2 mph wind, slowly rising barometer (1011 hPa)
Forecast low agreement — GFS/ECMWF/ICON ±12.4°F, ±2.6 mph, cloud uncertain (±60%)
Color In low light or stained water, choose baits that contrast with the background (dark/black, chartreuse, black-and-blue) rather than natural shades.
Solunar Moon underfoot (major) ~7:44 PM; Moon overhead (major) ~8:04 AM; Moon underfoot (major) ~8:36 PM
Scores weather 8/10 · solunar 7/10 · astro 4/10 → overall 6.9/10
Data sky + weather · GFS/ECMWF/ICON ±12.4°F, ±2.6 mph, cloud uncertain (±60%) (low agreement) · no lake-state inference · water temp estimated (no gauge nearby) · no stocking intel · logbook (none) · depth map: lake notes only

Weather layer

  • overcast = fish roam shallow & chase (big plus)
  • glassy — quiet presentations only
  • barometer slowly rising (+1.0 hPa/6h)

Almanac layer (the old-timers' calendar)

  • Moon in Cancer — moon at home — feeding near cover, tides of appetite run strong (almanac tradition, honored as lore)
  • Near-quarter moon (transition) — the almanac rates this a strong-feeding stretch
  • void-of-course until Moon enters the next sign at 15:54 — quiet hours, almanacs say fish pick at baits
  • Planetary hour at launch: Jupiter — big fortune — make the big cast, hunt the kicker fish (published in almanacs for centuries)

The session, hour-by-hour

Time Window Sky Do this
12:00 PM–12:57 PM Jupiter · Mars hour high sun Mid-depth crankbait — grind points & grass edges at the depth break
Jerkbait — twitch-twitch-long pause; coldwater king
12:57 PM–1:55 PM Mars high sun Mid-depth crankbait — grind points & grass edges at the depth break
Jerkbait — twitch-twitch-long pause; coldwater king

Best presentations for these conditions

  • Mid-depth crankbait — fills the mid-day gap
    • fly rod? → Bass baitfish streamer — baitfish profile on the move (editorial mapping; /kb/fly-bass)
  • Jerkbait — shines in clear water below 70°F

Trend watch — what's winning (market signal, not science)

Dated tournament/creator signals for rigs that already fit these conditions — shown after ranking and never scored into it. - Mid-depth crankbait — fits these conditions (scores 7.2) · YouTube — Brian Latimer (2026-09-19) - “RED CRANKBAITS - THE REAL REASON IT WORKS” - Drop shot — fits these conditions (scores 7.0) · MLF — Gill does it again, wins Tackle Warehouse Pro Circuit Championship on (Sun, 20 Sep 2026) - “Gill's primary bait on the first two days was the venerable 7-inch Big Bite Baits Nekorama in matte margarita on a drop-shot.” - Urchin/dice rig (treble + screw weights) — fits these conditions (scores 7.0) · MLF — Gill does it again, wins Tackle Warehouse Pro Circuit Championship on (Sun, 20 Sep 2026) - “I went out with 38 rods on my deck, because I didn't have a blockbuster deal on that area, and I'll be danged, every fish in that area wanted to bite the urchin. It was lights-out ” - Carolina rig — fits these conditions (scores 6.8) · YouTube — Tom Redington (2026-09-18) - “Carolina Rig Masterclass From the Guy Who Perfected It”

Line & knots for these rigs

  • Copolymer — a nylon-based blend — between mono and fluoro Knots quoted from the cited guides — facts, not folklore.
  • Uni knot (line-to-terminal, line-to-line, reel-spool) — The uni knot is a multi-purpose fishing knot used in angling that can be used for attaching the fishing line to the spool of a reel, for joining main line to leader/backing lines, and for attaching lures, swivels and snaps. (Wikipedia — Uni knot)
  • Palomar knot (line-to-terminal) — The Palomar knot is a knot that is used for securing a fishing line to a fishing lure, hook, or swivel. It is strong and easy to tie and with practice can even be tied in the dark. (Wikipedia — Palomar knot) Practice: always wet knots before tightening, regardless of line material; fluoro under 10 lb: 10 wraps when tying the snell or uni.

Decision rules

  • Overcast holds → extend the reaction phase; this cloud is a gift.

fishwitch mvp — weather via Open-Meteo · sky via Swiss Ephemeris · solunar + almanac tradition (fruitful/barren signs are old lore, honored but labeled).

Tackle for this session — sources & offers

These links never affect the ranking — they're added after the picks are set.

  • cited Mid-depth crankbait · Curve 55
    6th Sense catalog (6thsensefishing.com, Shopify products.json) · source
  • cited Jerkbait · Masterclass Jerkbait 107
    6th Sense catalog (6thsensefishing.com, Shopify products.json) · source

📈 Trend watch — what's winning

Dated tournament/creator signals for rigs that already fit these conditions — shown after ranking and never scored into it.

Keep going

The plan is set — now widen it, take it with you, or close the loop after.

Look ahead: 7-day outlook → Log this session Add windows to calendar (.ics)