🖨 print / pocket card — the locked numbers, windows, and presentations in one page.

FRIDAY OCT 2 — 3:00 PM SESSION

San Pablo Reservoir, Contra Costa County, CA | Last quarter (57%) | Moon in Cancer

One-paragraph version

Launch at 3:00 PM into a Mercury hour; the window that matters is 3:00 PM–3:54 PM (high sun), parked on the drop shot. Overall 7.2/10 — solid conditions with one clear prime window; be there for it.

The locked numbers

Weather layer

• overcast = fish roam shallow & chase (big plus)
• 8 mph chop breaks up overhead predators (plus)
• barometer steady (-0.2 hPa/6h)

Almanac layer (the old-timers' calendar)

• Moon in Cancer — moon at home — feeding near cover, tides of appetite run strong (almanac tradition, honored as lore)
• Off-quarter moon (neutral) — the almanac rates this a strong-feeding stretch
• moon is applying
• Planetary hour at launch: Mercury — skillful hands — knots, skips and hooksets are dialed (published in almanacs for centuries)

The session, hour-by-hour

Best presentations for these conditions

• Drop shot — the finesse answer when they slap at reaction baits
  • build: Owner Mosquito Circle 1/0 · Drop shot weight 1/8 oz · 6in Deception worm / Roboworm MMIII 6 in · fluorocarbon (owner field observation (sean, 2026-09-18); line from kb/line.json)
  • fly rod? → Damsel/dragon nymph fly — both suspend a small profile above the bottom and fish almost motionless — indicator or drop-shot fly rig (editorial mapping; /kb/fly-nymph)
• Wacky-rigged Senko — skipping docks = uneaten pie
  • build: Owner Jungle Wacky (weedless wacky hook) 1/0 · VMC Crossover Ring 6mm · VMC Crossover Pliers · 5in Senko 5 in · fluorocarbon (owner kit (sean, 2026-09-18); hook ref: Owner Jungle Wacky)
  • fly rod? → Damsel/dragon nymph fly — the Senko's dying fall = a slow-falling nymph twitched on the pause (editorial mapping; /kb/fly-nymph)

Trend watch — what's winning (market signal, not science)

Dated tournament/creator signals for rigs that already fit these conditions — shown after ranking and never scored into it. - Drop shot — fits these conditions (scores 7.2) · MLF — Gill does it again, wins Tackle Warehouse Pro Circuit Championship on (Sun, 20 Sep 2026) - “Gill's primary bait on the first two days was the venerable 7-inch Big Bite Baits Nekorama in matte margarita on a drop-shot.” - Urchin/dice rig (treble + screw weights) — fits these conditions (scores 7.2) · MLF — Gill does it again, wins Tackle Warehouse Pro Circuit Championship on (Sun, 20 Sep 2026) - “I went out with 38 rods on my deck, because I didn't have a blockbuster deal on that area, and I'll be danged, every fish in that area wanted to bite the urchin. It was lights-out ” - Mid-depth crankbait — fits these conditions (scores 7.0) · YouTube — Brian Latimer (2026-09-19) - “RED CRANKBAITS - THE REAL REASON IT WORKS” - Carolina rig — fits these conditions (scores 7.0) · YouTube — Tom Redington (2026-09-18) - “Carolina Rig Masterclass From the Guy Who Perfected It”

Line & knots for these rigs

• Fluorocarbon (PVDF) — sinks, is less visible (refractive index near water), and has less stretch/memory for direct contact Knots quoted from the cited guides — facts, not folklore.
• Snell knot (line-to-hook-shank) — The snell knot is a hitch knot used in angling to attach a fishing line to the shank (instead of the eye) of a fishing hook. (Wikipedia — Snell knot)
• Palomar knot (line-to-terminal) — The Palomar knot is a knot that is used for securing a fishing line to a fishing lure, hook, or swivel. It is strong and easy to tie and with practice can even be tied in the dark. (Wikipedia — Palomar knot)
• Uni knot (line-to-terminal, line-to-line, reel-spool) — The uni knot is a multi-purpose fishing knot used in angling that can be used for attaching the fishing line to the spool of a reel, for joining main line to leader/backing lines, and for attaching lures, swivels and snaps. (Wikipedia — Uni knot) Practice: always wet knots before tightening, regardless of line material; fluoro under 10 lb: 10 wraps when tying the snell or uni.

Decision rules

• Drop-shot fish slapping → re-cast the same fish one size up — change profile, not color.
• Wind from SW at 9 mph → the NW shore is wind-stacked (fetch ~379 m); fish it first — the SW shore is the lee.
• Overcast holds → extend the reaction phase; this cloud is a gift. (shoreline wind model — © OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL)

fishwitch mvp — weather via Open-Meteo · sky via Swiss Ephemeris · solunar + almanac tradition (fruitful/barren signs are old lore, honored but labeled).